Macro Economic Analysis – India
India of the numbers is different from India of the senses.
India of Numbers tells us that progress and prosperity are imminent - it is set to become the 3rd largest economy by 2030. By 2050, it's GDP per capita could rise to Rs.1.1 million- It is set for unprecedented youth takeover.
But the Indian economy really lives on its averages. India of the senses tells us that even though India is projected to be the world's third largest economy by 2030 -a global economic powerhouse but majority of its citizens will struggle with the bare essentials of a middle class lifestyle.
India of the numbers and sense, between averages and lived experiences will be far from Bridged.
India's main problems called the Twin problems are – Jobs(Gainful employment) and Access to Vital Services
a. Jobs- With around 90 million people coming of working age between 20-30, the entrants who will eventually find work will be disappointed by the India growth story sold to them. Most jobs will be in the informal sector with low productivity, low wages jobs and absence of job security and safety- all these qualify to be bad jobs.
A sizable portion will struggle to find gainful employment.
b. Access to vital services- Another major problem is access to vital services such as quality health, education, judiciary which is out of reach for millions of people. We need more doctors, teachers, agriculture extension workers, judges, plumbers and researchers.
Access challenges have other costs.The primary sector being underdeveloped,especially in rural areas,people travel extensively at high cost – causing overcrowding of places especially secondary and tertiary health sectors.
For example, authors have shown how the remotest parts of a country like the north east don’t have dependable primary health care and people travel to far off places for basic diagnosis and treatment. For small treatments, big hospitals and doctors are knocked upon leading to overcrowding.
In short, India has an overwhelming demand for vital services and an overwhelming supply of human capital. It just doesn't know how to build a bridge between them.